Nobody knows how to succeed on Broadway anymore.
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The theme was the Roaring 20s the louche decade of easy money that preceded the Great Depression.
Producers in newsboy caps raised their coupe glasses to actors in feathered flapper fits.
They were not necessarily in the mood to talk about the specter haunting the ball.
Yet Broadway was partying on, stuffing 12 premieres into the nine days before the Tony deadline.
The weather certainly isnt balmy.
Some producers predict a drastic correction with theaters sitting empty for months for the first time since the 1980s.
He debriefed us on the shows chaotic, last-minute transfer from New Jersey.
When a theater opens up and they offer it to you, Pattak explained, you take it.
Theater owners, eager to keep the lights on, have been plucking them up one after the other.
A Huey Lewis jukebox musical?
Randomly timed revivals ofTommyandThe Wiz?
AHamilton-lite revue of womens suffrage?
Dont mind if we do.
As the jazz age attests, bubbles can be fun.
More cast and crew are working more than ever and getting paid better for it.
But if youre an investor, youre watching the whole spectacle through your fingers.
Call it Peak Theater the best and worst time to open on Broadway.
Its former star, Brian dArcy James, remembers eavesdropping on the crew.
And thats kind of what this season feels like right now.
Its a Passover special, publicist Jim Byk explained with a tight grin.
Patriotscarries a timely premise: Michael Stuhlbarg plays a Russian oligarch who engineered the rise of Vladimir Putin.
Morgan created the Netflix hitThe Crown,and the streamer is co-producing, hoping to developPatriotsfor the screen.
Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos also walked the red carpet.
My attraction to all this goes back to Norman Lear, he told me.
The legendary showrunner plucked all his best talent from the theater.
Which is not great.
Its a noble sentiment, except that Netflix played a role in Broadways current predicament.
When COVID shuttered midtown for a year, would-be theatergoers turned to their Rokus.
Broadway came back, but it was transformed.
Other demographics held steady.
Rock and Rollis not the only opening-night show at which I found theatergoers with discounted last-minute tickets.
Thats usually not a good indicator.
In early May, even the big hits had plenty of seats available in June.
Advance sales can sustain a show through the slow summer months (and earn interest).
And we therefore have had to recalibrate how we forecast.
Yet the leaps behind this years shows were mostly made before COVID.
Rebuilding it in 2024 is more like restarting a fire: You need fresh kindling and a spark.
You need a show that absolutely everyone wants to see.
Hamiltonrose all boats, says producer John Johnson.
Since the pandemic, no shows seem to be a candidate for canonical status or even aKinky Bootslength run.
Yet Tonys no longer guarantee solvency.
It used to be that if a show won Best Musical, it would earn its money back.Moulin Rouge!
The Musical,the last winner to open before the pandemic, ultimately reopened and recouped.
The next two winners,A Strange LoopandKimberly Akimbo,failed to break even before closing.
That hadnt happened since 2002.
MJ,the Michael Jackson musical, is the closest weve come to a post-pandemic hit.
And this season,Merrily We Roll Alongrecouped its $12 million cost after only six months.
Both are rare post-pandemic success stories.
(Merrilymust close July 7; Redmayne is out ofCabaretin September.)
Besides, in 2024 you almost have to be a blockbuster to make money.
Sue Wagner co-producedGentlemans Guide.Back then, she says, we did shows on the bubble.
Youre not losing hundreds of thousands, but youre not making money.
You could survive for months and months.
The bubble has popped.
Before 2023, only a handful of shows were ever made for more than $20 million.
So why would you even try?
Roth, who is 32, comes off as the Broadway equivalent of a quant.
He frets over the interquartile of weekly grosses.
Because historically, its not that infrequent.
Its always been the case of,This makes absolutely no sense.
If you believe in a story, it doesnt need stars or a pedigree or IP.
That was the assumption, anyway, whenLempickawas being developed.
Ive been involved in that show since basically 2015, so it predates these trends, Roth says.
Its the only original musical Ive done since the pandemic and theres a reason for that.
Johnson is more eager to discussStereophonic: Were having a record-breaking day at the box office.
Its Tony haul vindicates Johnsons theory that Broadway must now adapt to a new core audience.
Its more like the well-pierced crowd I saw at theIllinoisepremiere, as if teleported from BAM.
The Outsidersdid great today.
They have a much younger audience.Hells Kitchen, Appropriate,same thing.
Johnson and a younger cohort of producers are placing bets on their generation.
Others are not so sure.
Im just trying to be a realist, says Bazadona of the Situation Group.
And you say to yourself,Who am I designing this for?A 25-year-old?
I dont see that happening.
What the optimists and pessimists agree on is that the business model has to change.
In part, this means boosting revenue.
But controlling costs feels like the top priority.
But that seems a little far-fetched in a system where so few shows break even.
The way the problem solves itself is empty theaters, says one producer.
Then the theater owners are going to start to cut deals.
Desperate for shows, they could offer breaks on rent.
Actors agents, hungry for work, could do the same.
Power brokers across the system, unions included, could bring down costs if the alternative is disaster.
And until then, some feel producers could show a little more restraint.
I have a big sign in my office that says WHY NOW, says longtime producer Tom Kirdahy.
Why this show at this moment?
Shows need to be ready for the kind of scrutiny Broadway invites.
Thats a tribute to our producer Chunsoo Shin and also just real estate.
This year feels like were roaring back, says Linda Cho, the musicals costume designer.
Jeremy Jordan, who plays Jay Gatsby, makes the clearest sales pitch: Gatsbyis the quintessential musical-theater show.
It fills that holePhantomandLes Mizleft open; its bigger than life, beautiful clothes, eye-popping sets.
It gives you exactly what youd imagine Broadway to give you and unabashedly so.
When I compliment his salesmanship, he responds, You know what?
Were trying to stay open, girl!
Were trying tostay open!
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