TVs streaming model is broken.
Its also not going away.
For Hollywood, figuring that out will be a horror show.
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Its just as dark as its ever been.
Its such a fucking disaster, isnt it?
Its like the entire system has snapped.
Everyone said, Great.
That seems like the thing to do.
Which essentially was like, Lets all commit ritual suicide.
Wheres myAlly McBeal, Once and Again,andBrothers & Sisters?
People are getting fucked.
I think we may be in the worlds biggest Ponzi scheme.
Across the town, theres despair and creative destruction and all sorts of countervailing indicators.
Certain shows that were enthusiastically green-lit two years ago probably wouldnt be made now.
Yet there are still streamers burning mountains of cash to entertain audiences that already have too much to watch.
There may be no problem more foundational than the way the system monetizes its biggest hits: It doesnt.
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Drew Barrymore Lights Up Daytime
Just ask Shawn Ryan.
I had done the calculations.
Half a billion hours is the equivalent of over 61 million people watching all ten episodes in 18 days.
Those shows that air after the Super Bowl its like having five or ten of them.
So I asked my lawyer, What does that mean?
As it turns out, not much.
In my case, it means that I got paid what I got paid.
But if you think Im going out and buying a private jet, youre way, way off.
That promise has gone away.
Nobody is crying for Ryan, of course, and he wouldnt want them to.
(Im not complaining!
Im not unaware of my position relative to most people financially.)
But he has a point.
More viewers meant higher ad rates, and the biggest hits could be sold to syndication and international markets.
For the people who make TV, the connection between ratings and reward has been severed.
So whoisgetting rich off hits likeThe Night Agent?
Not streaming services, no matter how many global viewing hours they accumulate.
Its absolutely conceivable that the streaming subscription model is the crypto of the entertainment business.
Viewers across every niche and taste cluster were inundated with more bespoke programming than they could ever realistically consume.
We knew it couldnt last, and it didnt.
If youre wonderingwhom to blame for TVs predicament, thats easy: It was Netflix.
Then the company embarked on what was probably the biggest spending spree in entertainment history.
He eventually went to work for a streamer.
Everyone bowed to what felt like the inevitable even the most storied brand in entertainment.
(Actually making the show would cost even more.)
COVID further juiced the value of companies whose primary market is serving shut-ins.
Iger retired on the last day of 2021.
All that was missing was a MISSION: ACCOMPLISHED banner.
Investors began to bail.
A stock that had been approaching $700 would soon fall below $200.
Netflix began to look more like one of the fusty incumbents it had attempted to vanquish.
It changed policies on commercials (good) and password sharing (bad) and eliminated hundreds of jobs.
For the companys rivals, Netflixs woes begot a mix of Schadenfreude and relief: Maybe sanity had prevailed.
But what at first looked like a Netflix correction was in fact astreamingcorrection.
Investors started punishing Disney, Warner Bros.
Discovery, and other Netflix wannabes.
Iger unretired to retake the CEO job at Disney.
Layoffs and budget cuts spread across Hollywood.
After years of green-lighting shows with impunity, platforms invented cruel and unusual ways to cancel them.
HBO Max, Disney+, Paramount+, and Hulu purged entire series from their libraries for the tax savings.
Not even projects with big names were safe.
TheDemimondething shook everybody up, says one showrunner.
If HBO can say no to J. J. Abrams, they could say no to anybody.
They just changed their mind, says Schur.
They didnt want to spend the money anymore.
They built it, and nobody came.
Many of these concerns are driven by a sense that the past decade was an elaborate bait and switch.
Early on, the streaming age seemed to herald exciting possibilities for writers.
Streamers offered something different.
To make up for the lost back end, streamers floated performance-based incentives.
So youre like,Holy shit.
There was a catch.
Many seemingly successful series began to vanish after just a couple of seasons.
They kind of tricked everybody.
Now if you get to 20 episodes, its a miracle.
Streaming bosses (and even some agents) think such complaints are overhyped.
The cost-plus model offers creators pretty good, low-risk income.
But on the whole, creative types arent looking for predictability.
But now everybodys basically playing a baseball game where people can only hit singles.
The ball over the fence is still only a single.
These deals are also where creators of successful shows might get some indirect recompense.
(Ryan expects hell see a bump in his next contract, postThe Night Agent.)
We talk about showrunning as if its a real job, saysBriarpatchcreator Andy Greenwald.
Its a made-up title, and its not a paid position.
Lately, aside from the case of a few superstars, the market for these long-term pacts has dampened.
Overall deals are very hard to come by right now, says a partner at a big talent agency.
Things are naturally worse for those on the industrys lower rungs.
Writers on the staffs of hit shows used to be comfortable between jobs because they earned residuals from reruns.
But those checks have shrunk for streaming shows made under the cost-plus model.
Some have taken jobs inretailordriving Lyfts.
The real issue is that the medium changed.
But this so-called progress may have long-term consequences.
You focus really hard on screwing this bolt into this piece of metal, and thats all you do.
And as a result, nobodys learning how to make a whole car.
Staffing sucks right now, says Greenwald.
I know that there are outliers and examples that are good, but broadly, Im hearing horror stories.
Novice workers can spend months on a show, and the show might just get tossed.
It just might never air.
What kind of career are you building with that handful of ashes?
WhatwasPeak TV,if were being honest about the stuff that piled up in our queues?
But there were some stinkers, too.
If they make 120 the following year, that doesnt mean theyll get 12 great shows.
There arent a lot of secret genius showrunners out there.
In theWatchmenwriters room, we would play this game calledIs It a Show?
But the joke was it was always a show.
Were all stuck in our bubbles of awareness, says Lindelof.
They think they have to spend $20 million an episode, and they dont.
TV doesnt have to be Sundance in 2008.
Theres this weird stratification where shows are for either the one percent or the 99 percent.
They dont seem to like what the audience likes, says the top agent.
They all want to writeBarry.And you know who watchesBarry?
As miserable as the past year has been, the next one will probably be worse.
A prolonged shutdown could lead to moreDemimonde-style executions with streamers canceling any projects and overall deals they consider inessential.
There are already discouraging signs.
Warner Bros. has announced plans to adapt the dregs of theHarry Potterbooks into a decade-long TV show.
Lionsgate says its doing the same with theTwilightbooks.
Showtime is developing threeDexterspinoffs, fourBillionsoffshoots, and sequels toWeedsandNurse Jackie.
Now almost everything is in this liminal space between yes and no.
Another friend was developing a show at another major studio that featured a central trans story line.
Their show was canceled.
We had Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Showtime.
Everybody was like, What do we need to do to get this show?
And that was off a pitch, not even a script.
But recently, when shopping a similar show, the reception was entirely different.
People are very mindful, and the barrier to get something made is very studied.
This time, nobody bid.
You dont get Quinta Brunson andAbbott Elementaryunless you invest in her, she says.
Some of this frugality may have an ulterior motive.
Insiders say the belt-tightening is partially motivated by the anticipation of more corporate shuffling.
Its sort of the slow avalanche you see coming.
Anytime somethings not a core business, its up for speculation.
Many in the industry have conjectured that the streaming ecosystem may eventually shrink to four major platforms.
If thats the case, then wed have sacrificed cable only to replace it with a broadcast-style monopoly.
A world with fewer apps could have immediate downsides for both consumers and creators.
More significantly, anyone making shows would likely lose negotiating power.
Instead, streamers are experimenting with other business models.
Netflix claims its Basic With Ads tier brings inmore revenueper user than its standard commercial-free plan.
This shift might also realign the incentives of the TV business to favor shows with wider appeal.
Maybe it already has.
Everybody is looking for high-quality, broad-audience shows again, says one veteran writer.
That show costs $2 million an episode, says one top packaging agent familiar with TV budgets.
Well,The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Powercosts$50 million.
You tell me where theyre going to go next.
(An Amazon spokesman says theRingsfigure is way off.)
The solutions weirdly all revert back to what used to be on some level.
Its not like just returning to the old status quo is the answer.
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