Oscar Futures
Keeping pace with Hollywoods perpetual awards horserace.
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Saoirse Ronan has grown up on the Oscars stage.
The Irish actress earned her first Academy Award nomination at the age of 13 forAtonement.
Since then shes received three more, an enviable record for an actor who just turned 30 this year.
While you mightntcall her overdue, exactly, shes certainly paid her dues.
If were talking Oscar, which one is the better bet?
Lets start withThe Outrun, which opened in limited release last Friday.
Shes in every scene, and frequently the only person in the frame.
(Speaking of, 2014sWildwould not be a bad comp for this movie.)
If she gets in forThe Outrun, Ronan will almost certainly be her movies sole nominee.
Still, thats not always a dealbreaker, especially in Best Actress.
Just ask Julianne Moore, who won her long-awaited trophy in 2015 forStill Alice.
The Outrunis one of the smaller films in this years race.
Steve McQueensBlitz, which just debuted at the London Film Festival, is one of the biggest.
However, McQueen gives her plenty of awards-friendly notes to play.
The Academy has been trending away from career wins lately, but they still do happen.
(See: Jessica Chastain forThe Eyes of Tammy Faye.)
Could there be an opening here for a known quantity with an appealing narrative?
Oscar Futures: ItsBlitz!
(The Brits are more effusive.)
(Especially as Reitman cant count on love from critics, some of whom have issuedbrutal takedowns.)
Per-theater averages in limited release werepromising.
WereSaturday Nightto best the crateringJoker: Folie a Deuxthis weekend, it might be ready for prime time.
.Current Predix
.
Down Todd Phillips,Joker: Folie a Deux
The knives came out for Phillips this week.
Moreover, until we see what Timmy Chalamet gets up to inA Complete Unknown, who gets thefourthspot?
TeamBlitzis ignoring all this and running pint-sized star Elliott Heffernan in lead.
The movie offers Ronan little chance to develop her characters emotional life over time, he argues.
Ill simply note that that doesnt soundun-Oscar-y.
Down Lady Gaga,Joker: Folie a Deux
The saddest thing aboutFolie a Deuxflopping?
We will now be deprived of a classic Lady Gaga Oscar campaign.
