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Why dothis years Oscar nominationsfeel so much harder to predict than usual?
But its also because we simply dont know which way the membership is leaning this year.
In years like 2019, the Oscars skewed mainstream, nominating big blockbusters likeBlack PantherandBohemian Rhapsody.
At other times, like in 2018 and 2022, its taste leaned more auteurist.
Which of those dueling factors will come out on top this season?
Well find out Tuesday morning.
But in the meantime, here are Vultures official predictions for the eight biggest races.
One of them features an Oscar-winning actor playing anunrecognizable alien, and the other takes place on Pandora!
The last three spots are in flux.
Which leaves us with one spot, and half-a-dozen films to fill it.
While Oscars preferential ballot rewards consensus picks for the winner, during the nominations passion rules the day.
NorThe Woman KingorGlass Onion, both of which have faded from the conversation after a series of notable snubs.
But Id want to have seen it show up at more precursors before putting it in my ten.
Anyone crazy enough to likeBabylonis crazy enough to rank it No.
1 on their ballot, and its that kind of passion I think will make the difference.
However, the last seat might as well be a hot potato.
The poor reception forEmancipationprevented voters from having to address the Will Smith question just yet.
The rest of the category is so unsettled that I expect were in for some surprises.
What aboutThe Fabelmans Michelle Williams?
Since once-buzzy contenders likeBabylons Brad Pitt have faltered, the rest of the field more or less picks itself.
Danos subdued performance got in at SAG even when Williams, his showier co-star, was snubbed.
Concerns about vote-splitting havent kept bothBansheesblokes from showing up everywhere, either.
Or Hsu, the shape-shifting heart of the film but also a newcomer with a significantly smaller industry profile?
Williams could easily end up back in lead or split her own vote so much she cracks neither category.
And Condon, the counterbalance to the mixed-up masculinity that suffusedBanshees…
Okay, shes probably safe.
In other words, maybe dont expect to seeElvis.
In the final spot, I would love to see a personal effort likeAftersunor a tasty surprise likeThe Menu.
Another Best Picture hopeful the Brits snubbed,Glass Onion, is probably safe as well.
(Remember, sequels are always slotted in Adapted.)
