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The week afterOscar nominationsis a strange time for every awards pundit.
The little movies that weve nurtured for months are finally out in the world.
A week ago, you didnt know Hillary Clintons opinions on the Best Director race.Now you do!
The nominations announcement means that myOscar Futurescolumn has wrapped up for the season.
(Academy bylaws forbid campaigns from serving food or alcohol after the nominations.)
Now that we actually know whos competing, we can really lock in and ask the important questions.
Questions like, Can asnubin one category actually help you in another?
Whos the Best Actor front-runner?
And how mad should you be aboutBarbies Oscar shutout?
The first is to familiarize yourself with how the Academy Awards work.
Finally, attempt to be internally consistent.
Just know that you are now arguing Spike Lees screenplay Oscar forBlacKkKlansmanis less prestigious thanGreen Books.
Is There a Path Forward forBarbie?
(Right now, pundits only have it winning one of its eight nominations: Best Original Song.)
Imagine the tastes of these voters.
Can Anyone Unseat the Other Half ofBarbenheimer?
In all likelihood,Oppenheimerwill join them.
Everything looks set forOppenheimerto win Best Picture, Best Director, and a whole lot else.
If it did, that would be a rare occurrence in todays awards landscape.
Over the past five years weve seen aforeign film, astreaming movie, and agonzo comedywin Best Picture.
The only kind of film that hasnt won?
But who, if anyone, is going to do it?
To pull off the upset, a film needs two things.
(Think of the wayCODAs surprise SAG Ensemble win catapulted it from also-ran to champion.)
The road to Best Picture runs through Screenplay or Director.
If youre not winning one of those, youre not winning, period.
What About the Other Best Picture Nominees?
Theyre just along for the ride.
6.American Fiction
Now were inCODAterritory.
And two, the film outperformed expectations on nomination morning, suggesting this likable comedy has some sleeper potential.
The downside for the boarding-school dramedy is that its unlikely to win the DGA or BAFTA.
But Paynes film boasts a decent shot of ending Oscar night with multiple trophies.
3.Poor Things
Yorgos Lanthimoss steampunk sex romp received every nom it needed at the Oscars.
So why is it third?
Mostly because it was left out of SAG Ensemble.
2.Barbie
Conversely, I see the large, colorfulBarbieensemble as the cast with the best shot of upsettingOppenheimerat SAG.
Still, even its position is looking shakier than it used to.
